Possible scenario
Rates Concern Builds
20% Chance
The upside surprise is interpreted as another reason for the Federal Reserve to stay cautious on easing. Stronger growth expectations support cyclicals, but higher yields weigh on rate-sensitive sectors and long-duration technology.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.4%
- Utilities -0.4%
- Finance +0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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