Possible scenario
Factory Rebound Extends
40% Chance
The strong New York Fed manufacturing reading is treated as confirmation that the October PMI strength is feeding into regional factory activity. Markets look through the prior Philly Fed pullback and assume tariff damage remains manageable in the near term.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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