Possible scenario
Security Setbacks Continue
26% Chance
Iran-aligned forces or direct Iranian pressure test Saudi Arabia's bypass strategy by targeting energy infrastructure outside the Gulf. The 10 million bpd target remains strategically important, but markets focus on whether the Red Sea corridor and inland pipeline network can actually be defended.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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