Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-Escalation
20% Chance
U.S., Omani, Qatari, and European pressure creates a negotiated path for partial tanker passage through Hormuz. Saudi Arabia continues the bypass expansion, but markets price a lower probability of prolonged Gulf export paralysis.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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