Possible scenario
Liability Bill Passes
40% Chance
The AK Party uses its parliamentary majority to pass a law making fund managers personally and institutionally liable for part of the roughly $20 billion loss. The measure is framed as restitution for households and small investors, but it deepens legal uncertainty for Turkish financial intermediaries.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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