Possible scenario
Courts Slow Crackdown
20% Chance
Turkey's opposition parties, bar associations, and affected financial firms challenge the retroactive-liability framework. The result is a slower, more legally contested cleanup that reduces immediate enforcement risk but prolongs uncertainty over investor recoveries.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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