Possible scenario
Bill Is Softened
25% Chance
The government keeps the political promise of accountability but rewrites the bill to reduce systemic risk. Liability is tied to proven misconduct, while interim state-supervised payments continue for affected investors.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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