Possible scenario
Talks Stall Again
45% Chance
Russia's denial of progress is most consistent with a continuation of the stop-start diplomacy seen since late 2025. Moscow may keep channels open while rejecting the U.S. sequencing or terms, leaving the battlefield and sanctions posture largely unchanged.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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