Possible scenario
Battlefield Escalation Follows
20% Chance
If diplomacy visibly stalls, Russia or Ukraine could increase military pressure to improve bargaining leverage. This would be a material escalation relative to the headline, but still short of a new war declaration or systemic crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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