Possible scenario
Negotiated Export Pause
40% Chance
Washington uses slower aircraft-parts approvals as leverage but keeps the measure reversible. Beijing offers limited rare-earth magnet assurances for aerospace and auto supply chains, allowing both sides to avoid a broader disruption.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.3%
- Technology +0.3%
Tickers
- BA+1.9%
- GE+1.5%
- MP-1.1%
- +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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