Possible scenario
Controlled Tit-for-Tat
30% Chance
Neither side exits the talks, but both governments keep pressure on strategic supply chains. Aircraft spares, engines and avionics approvals slow while China maintains rare-earth magnet limits for selected US customers.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -2.0%
- Non-Energy Materials +1.0%
- Technology -0.5%
Tickers
- BA-3.8%
- GE-2.9%
- MP+1.5%
- -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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