Possible scenario
Broader Control Escalation
20% Chance
The dispute spreads beyond routine spare parts into higher-value aerospace systems. China answers with tighter rare-earth magnet documentation, raising near-term risks for aerospace, defense electronics and industrial supply chains.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -3.5%
- Non-Energy Materials +2.1%
- Technology -1.6%
Tickers
- GE-5.1%
- BA-4.8%
- MP+2.5%
- -1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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