Possible scenario
Regional Deterrence Escalates
20% Chance
The missile claim triggers a coordinated U.S.-South Korea-Japan response focused on deterrence, missile defense, and sanctions enforcement. This is more likely than direct conflict, but it still raises short-term regional risk premia.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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