Possible scenario
Supreme Court Limits Trump
20% Chance
The Supreme Court could decide that Federal Reserve governors receive especially strong statutory protection and that alleged pre-Fed mortgage misconduct is insufficient for immediate removal. That would largely preserve the status quo and reduce uncertainty around the Board's independence.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.6%
- Finance +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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