Possible scenario
Legitimacy Crisis
20% Chance
The scrutineer ban becomes the focal point of a broader fight between Premier Danielle Smith's government and Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals. Boycotts, litigation and federal warnings make the referendum look less like a routine provincial vote and more like a constitutional confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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