Possible scenario
Ban Stands
35% Chance
Elections Alberta defends the prohibition on third-party scrutineers and the referendum proceeds under the disputed rules. Premier Danielle Smith's government argues the rules protect ballot integrity, while federalist groups and Ottawa question the legitimacy of the process.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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