Possible scenario
Interagency Friction Delays Policy
20% Chance
The omission of Commerce becomes a visible turf dispute between the White House, NIST, BIS, and other agencies. Policy deliverables are delayed, adding uncertainty for companies that need clarity on safety benchmarks, export licensing, and federal procurement.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.9%
- Business Services -0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
- NVDA-0.8%
- MSFT-0.4%
- AMD-0.4%
- -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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