Possible scenario
Rejoin Debate Contained
42% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Keir Starmer's government uses the £5 billion annual cost estimate to contain pressure for EU re-entry. Downing Street keeps cooperation with Brussels alive but avoids endorsing a referendum or membership campaign before the next general election.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Business Services +0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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