Possible scenario
Referendum Path Opens
18% Chance
Andy Burnham and other pro-European Labour figures use public support and EU encouragement to keep the rejoining option alive. This does not immediately make membership likely, but it raises the probability of a future manifesto commitment or referendum pledge.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.3%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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