Possible scenario
Chinese Signaling Response
30% Chance
Beijing is likely to respond with diplomatic objections and visible military signaling, especially around Okinawa, the East China Sea, or Taiwan-adjacent waters. The response remains calibrated to avoid a direct clash while reinforcing China's opposition to U.S. missile deployments in the region.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Technology -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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