Possible scenario
Range-Bound Consolidation
38% Chance
The most likely near-term outcome is a muted consolidation after September's modest 0.45% decline. Investors have already absorbed the Fed's hawkish September signal and elevated Treasury yields, leaving equities vulnerable but not in a disorderly selloff.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Technology +0.2%
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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