Possible scenario
Gradual Disinflation Path
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that inflation continues to cool slowly, with services prices remaining firm but not re-accelerating. The Federal Reserve keeps policy restrictive for longer while preparing a cautious easing cycle as confidence improves.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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