Possible scenario
Faster Cooling Surprise
15% Chance
Inflation slows faster than Williams' baseline as labor-market rebalancing and weaker rent inflation feed through to services. The Fed gains room to signal earlier or somewhat deeper rate cuts without declaring victory prematurely.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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