Possible scenario
Mojtaba Consolidates Rule
38% Chance
The most likely path is that Mojtaba Khamenei survived the strike and Iran moves quickly to prove continuity. The IRGC, Guardian Council, and state media would prioritize visible unity to prevent rumors of regime fracture.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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