Possible scenario
Clerical Regency Emerges
27% Chance
Mojtaba Khamenei may be alive but unable to govern directly. In that case, senior clerics, the Assembly of Experts, and the IRGC would likely create a temporary decision structure while keeping the supreme leader title formally intact.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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