Possible scenario
Backchannel De-escalation
20% Chance
Washington’s statement that it believes the supreme leader is alive could be part of a signaling effort to avoid further escalation. Qatar or Oman could facilitate indirect messages on leadership security, detainees, and energy flows.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.5%
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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