Possible scenario
International Accountability Track
20% Chance
Iran and human-rights groups are likely to use the Pentagon's refusal to release the report as evidence for an international inquiry. The process is more legal and diplomatic than military, so market impacts remain limited unless it affects U.S.-Iran risk perceptions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.3%
Tickers
- LMT-0.3%
- -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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