Possible scenario
Limited One-Off Strike
25% Chance
The bomber attack proves to be a limited strike rather than the start of an immediate large campaign. Russia may be testing Ukrainian defenses, conserving long-range missiles, or responding to recent Ukrainian attacks on Russian air bases.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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