Possible scenario
Raptor 3 Validated
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the Super Heavy flight produces enough clean propulsion and staging data to validate the Raptor 3 upgrade. After the early-ending orbital attempt on September 28, SpaceX and the FAA would still review telemetry, but the market read-through is that Starship development remains iterative rather than stalled.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
Tickers
- SPCX+4.6%
- RKLB-0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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