Possible scenario
New Technical Setback
25% Chance
A meaningful propulsion, separation, or flight-termination issue emerges from the launch, extending the pattern of rapid tests followed by investigations. The setback would be important for SpaceX’s internal schedule but still contained to the launch industry rather than a broad macro event.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.3%
Tickers
- SPCX-5.6%
- RKLB+0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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