Possible scenario
FAA Path Dominates
15% Chance
The technical outcome is mixed enough that the regulatory process, rather than the engine data alone, becomes the main determinant of the next phase. The FAA’s handling of the post-flight review shapes whether SpaceX can preserve a high test cadence after multiple recent mishap investigations.
Tickers
- SPCX-0.5%
- RKLB+0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.