Possible scenario
Orderly Bank Resolution
+0.2%
The most likely path is that Paraguay’s new central bank leadership prioritizes depositor access, payment-system continuity and a fast resolution of Ueno Bank. The Banco Central del Paraguay, the Superintendencia de Bancos and the Fondo de Garantía de Depósitos would try to show that the failure is idiosyncratic rather than systemic.
What it moves
- Finance+0.5%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.