Possible scenario
Limited Proxy Retaliation
25% Chance
Tehran avoids an immediate direct strike but permits aligned groups in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, or Yemen to test US and Israeli red lines. This creates a contained escalation that lifts oil and volatility but stays below a regional-war threshold.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.0%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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