Possible scenario
Direct Missile Exchange
20% Chance
Iran turns target mapping into direct action after another Israeli or US move against its weapons infrastructure. Israel and potentially the United States respond against Iranian missile, drone, and command sites, creating the highest-risk near-term outcome.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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