Possible scenario
Deterrent Signaling Holds
45% Chance
Iran uses the mapped target lists as deterrent messaging rather than an immediate launch plan. Tehran, Washington, and Jerusalem keep forces on alert, but backchannels limit the risk of a direct exchange in the near term.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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