Possible scenario
Managed Coalition Delay
40% Chance
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu avoids fully endorsing Bezalel Smotrich's demand but lets Israeli security agencies slow approvals for reconstruction inputs. This preserves the governing coalition while stopping short of a formal policy to force displacement.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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