Possible scenario
Hardline Policy Advances
20% Chance
Smotrich and allied ministers convert the reconstruction blockade from rhetoric into binding government policy. The move deepens Israel's rift with the UN, Arab states, and parts of the U.S. political establishment while raising the risk of renewed unrest in Gaza.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.