Possible scenario
External Pressure Prevails
25% Chance
Washington, Cairo, the UN, and Gulf donors conclude that blocking reconstruction risks renewed war and regional instability. Israel accepts a monitored reconstruction mechanism that limits dual-use materials but allows visible rebuilding to begin.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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