Possible scenario
Sustained Business Strikes
30% Chance
Russia follows the September 28 attack with additional drone waves aimed at commercial districts and infrastructure supporting international firms. This raises operating, insurance, and staff-safety costs for companies still active in Kyiv, while modestly supporting demand for air-defense systems.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Business Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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