Possible scenario
Punitive Containment
35% Chance
Washington responds with limited additional strikes on IRGC Navy launchers, radar sites, and command nodes while avoiding attacks on Iran’s core oil infrastructure. Iran signals it has answered the U.S. retaliation but keeps asymmetric pressure on shipping to preserve leverage.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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