Possible scenario
Direct US-Iran War
20% Chance
The United States expands strikes from IRGC Navy assets to coastal missile batteries, air-defense nodes, and command facilities. Iran retaliates against U.S. bases or Gulf energy infrastructure, creating the highest-risk path toward a broader regional conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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