Possible scenario
Hinojosa Holds Edge
34% Chance
Abbott's absence from Trump's San Antonio rally reinforces the perception of a split Republican coalition. Gina Hinojosa continues to consolidate Democratic voters, suburban moderates, and anti-Abbott independents while Abbott struggles to explain both the polling deficit and the Trump distance.
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Utilities +0.3%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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