Possible scenario
Abbott Rebuilds Coalition
31% Chance
Abbott uses his financial advantage and the Republican turnout machine to turn the race back into a conventional red-state contest. Trump and Paxton remain complicating factors, but Republican voters ultimately prioritize keeping the governor's office.
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Utilities -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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