Possible scenario
Factory rebound broadens
38% Chance
The August industrial production beat proves more than a statistical bounce, helped by firmer US demand, stabilised energy costs and some recovery in manufacturing orders. This would support the view that the UK goods sector is finally contributing to growth after the post-2022 energy shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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