Possible scenario
European Burden Shift
25% Chance
The U.S. review of forces in Europe and repeated threats of NATO cuts lead allies to rely more heavily on European command, procurement and readiness structures. Breuer's German background becomes politically useful as Berlin is expected to convert its trillion-euro plans into deployable capability.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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