Possible scenario
Operational Restraint Emerges
15% Chance
Both sides quietly decide that repeated coast guard confrontations are becoming too risky. Taiwan maintains its legal position, while China preserves its claim through statements rather than larger deployments.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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