Possible scenario
Contained Maritime Incident
45% Chance
Taiwan and China treat the water-cannon episode as another gray-zone encounter rather than a trigger for broader escalation. Taipei keeps patrols active near Kinmen while Beijing issues protests through the Taiwan Affairs Office and Coast Guard but avoids a military follow-on.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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