Possible scenario
AGI Claim Rejected
30% Chance
AI researchers, rival labs, and some customers argue that Brockman's declaration is premature and based on an OpenAI-specific threshold. The event becomes a credibility issue for OpenAI rather than a broad market shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.2%
Tickers
- MSFT-1.9%
- NVDA-1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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