Possible scenario
Rates Dominate Tape
20% Chance
The AI narrative remains important, but the next 1-2 trading days are driven mainly by Treasury yields and Fed repricing. Expensive growth stocks stay unusually sensitive to any move in the 10-year yield.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.5%
- Technology -0.5%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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