Possible scenario
AI Unwind Extends
30% Chance
The rout continues as investors further question AI monetization, depreciation burdens and the durability of hyperscaler capex. Selling remains concentrated in semiconductors, servers and richly valued software rather than becoming a full financial crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.6%
- Telecommunications -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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